interest. but we will have to wait to see. >> the market size gap. >> yes. they need to get the debt under control. thank you for being with us. and thank you for watching power lunch. closing bell starts right now. thank you so much and welcome. i'm scott walker. from the new york stock exchange. this breakout begins all eyes on apple. it is ready to report earnings in overtime. and our experts on the case. watching for when this stock could exit. that is the big question. in the meantime, your scorecard with regulation. it looks like we are green across the board. making a bit of a post bump. even better as we enter this final stretch. and market clearly likes that and the interest rates are also moving lower. that is helping the overall

environment, as well. a good day for small caps. yields are down. tech is up. the big names getting a nice lift. speaking of, the mega caps it take us to our talk in the tape. assessing apple. once the biggest and most important stock in the market. now this tells a very different story. the share is the worst performing in the group this year. will tonight get the stock back on track? let us ask our panel. and requisite capitol management and joe terranova. and they are both cnbc contributors. great to see everybody here. and you get the ball first. what do you think about tonight?

>> i will take the ball and run with it. i think a lot is priced into the stock. first if you look at the chart technically over the last one year. as joe can attest to perhaps lower lows and higher high prices. but i think that is going to continue to grow. there is low expectations. i'm going to stick with tim cook. the bad news is priced in and the stock is trying to make a balance from the long-term support at $172. >> and tim cook. the other two teams look to be walking away from that. joe sitting right next to me. he rebalanced. as most of you know and we documented it yesterday on halftime pick one of the big moves if not the biggest. no more apple. you sold it. tell us why? >> based on technicals. and revenue decline. based on the fact that if, in fact revenue growth comes in. negative 5% this quarter this

is the fifth quarter out of the last six that we've seen that decline. i cannot remember a quarter where the expectations were so low for this stock. let me cite a statistic which is absolutely remarkable. the percentage of analysts that have a buy rating. relative to the other mega caps. 57% . 57 have a buy rate on apple. if you look at the magnificent five. putting tesla to the side. there is not one

appropriate. to the questions i'm going to ask and the ones that joe just answered for me. whether if the total revenue is going to decline. and joseph sat down five in the last 6/4. adjusted department antitrust astute. china concerns. the china revenue is done by 15%. and weaker sales of iphone. you can talk all you want but it is an iphone company. it accounts for half of the revenue of this company. they are expected to fall by 10% from last year. and what something is going to be a weaker month of june. let me show you the ailwinds and to hear your answer. you sold us some of your position in nearly one year ago. perhaps one half of it. you are you moving in the opposite direction. why? >> yes and no, scott. i'm glad that you came to me after the first two. and i said somewhere in between both of them.

expectations are extremely high for apple today and low, simultaneously. they are high because the street is so excited for ai in thirsty for . if they scramble - sprinkle some bread phones -- breadcrumbs that will probably be enough to make sure that i want to hang in. but at the same time. my concern was that the scott this stock was overheated. i was probably not wrong. i sold it at $174. here we are today at the same range. but i'm starting to think that analysts are as negative as they are is joy pointed out. this is probably setting up to be a great opportunity to purchase into this name. not anybody should be expected another $2000 moment where they kick off an entire new wave of innovation tomorrow. but usually when sentiment will shift like this against these mega names.

that is usually when something great will happen in those companies. such as amazon two years ago. that is my thinking. i'm having two competing thoughts at the same time. and i might want to be purchasing those stocks back. >> when he difference a couple of years makes. week get used to running up and the number. not so much this time for this stock. you could take the ressure off a little bit. malcolm mentioned what is to come. perhaps some breadcrumbs on the trail tonight relative to ai. and we can show the tailwinds now . because we expected something ai related to come for the first time in six years. so is it time to purchase the

fear rather than sell it? >> you know what is remarkable i know the strategy will back into apple again. i know that. >> your strategy is growth and quality and momentum. >> yes. back to apple. and collectively, malcolm and brandon and i would acknowledge that if you clear understanding of the history of this company. never bet against apple. they always deliver at some point. with all of that from a risk management perspective. perhaps uncomfortable with the momentum strategy did. i think the capitol allocation strategy tonight is going to be incredibly aggressive. if you are looking for wildcard this evening? china is 19% of the apple 2023 revenue. we know they are losing market share. maybe tony is correct. we are at a moment for china

and that is the wildcard. it also contributes to buffering the decline in this stock. but i think collectively, overall you hear it and added in all of our comments. would be surprised if apple delivered a weaker quarter. the significant follow-through selling would be surprising. because that is so counter to what the fundamental history of this company is. >> maybe it is a trough moment in some respects for everything. we should say one of the tailwinds is the services growth is expected to be strong. and as i said just this is an iphone company. and as you said, they have the most powerful installed in the history of consumer products. let us be honest. but it has not been enough, lately. >> also if you take a page from qualcomm that came out with numbers . qualcomm called out to strong demand for premium tier and ai phones. obviously apple is not an ai

phone but is also premium tier. we are seeing qualcomm is a great day. that could be an indication to apple, as well. also, with china. tim cook reminded everybody in mainland china that the iphone is four of the top six positions in terms of the seller . so while they are making a base they are still selling a lot of phones. all three of us are in agreement. the long term strong fundamentals and tim could not do it. but also with the discipline strategy like joe. it is making lower lows and higher highs. that could stop if we get a pop after the airings, tonight. >> malcolm maybe the biggest fear is related to china. and whether we are going under a secular change. and what was thought to be the

beginning cyclical and the business was going to come back around. it is actually more structural and secular. the dynamics in that market are more national purchasing, if you will. while taking market share that joe alluded to. what if that is a bigger issue than we once realized? >> yes. i think it is a bigger issue than we are willing to expect. we realize it. we do not want to accept it. iphone sales are declining and they will continue. and they are competing with samsung. and i think that it is worth pointing out. i know this horse has been beat to death and beaten some more. but the lack of growth and the name is bennett directly attributed to the lack of innovation for the last couple of years. they are going to have to innovate their way out of this rut. i do not mean incorporating ai into the apple 16. but you already dominate in hardware. that is not

quarters. that perhaps could be a 2025 set up. >> i wonder if one of the issues is the apple as part of the dow. this is one of the better performers. as we noticed but they do not necessarily a rabbit to pull out of their hat today. they are not going to tell you what is really coming from ai. they are going to unveil it. do not really know anything but assuming next month or not getting anything substantive on that idea until later. but my point is they are not monetizing ai at all right now.

you cannot pull a rabbit out of the hat and say they are. or show us they are. like microsoft or some of these other companies that have a narrative jumped to the front of that race. >> they are also not exciting the potential investor base by dangling ai. >> they could dangle the word. >> they could dangle it but are they going to clear up this cloudiness that exists surrounding with the ai strategy is. i am a believer that yes. if you're able to incorporate ai into some products and to incorporate specifically into the iphone 16 . you can have something similar to what you with the iphone 6. that is where you got the bigger size iphone. they delivered record numbers in sales for the iphone, itself.

i do not know if it would get to that magnitude. but they could create excitement to get the existing customer base to upgrade at that moment. up the cloudiness. and clearing up the cloudiness around this market. >> well i think it was definitely hoping that the next move is a decline not a rate hike. remember it was march of 2022 when he said that we do not see any reason to have 75 basis rate hikes and we ad four that year.

he is a human being. he called down the market. but i think the jury is still out if we get housing inflation in the way they track it to come down. i think that is what he is banking on. for today, and it's great for the current market. but we will see in the next couple of months of what he is predicting will come true. >> he has this confidence and he exhibited it yesterday. everybody would agree that the story is going to play out. inflation will come down as the year progresses. the economy and the labor market are going to be as strong as they are. and even if they cool down, that is good. it means that it is a soft landing. >> my chief concern is that in six months from now we are going to look back. that is where he should've started cutting. the miss that we find themselves our direct result of

them maintaining higher, for longer. we only know that because we have written all the way through the end of the year. we can see that in hindsight. we are at a place where we can reasonably expect rates to ease and get the consumer back. we could get a small business is back investing. but he has backed himself into a bit of a corner. he cannot reasonably cut because he is saying so much about inflation spiking backup. they do not want to go back and forth. i am concerned that we will get there towards the end of the year. what we're looking forward to have broken will break. and we will say yes. march, april and may is where we could've started. but it will be too late. >> joe you took the fire off of rates. the 10 year right now is 4.57 and remember yesterday. the two are was at 5%. the two year at 5% we talked about that all week long. we took the simmer off of the

right market at least for today. >> i have to tell you i really appreciate his confidence. he was very consistent in the message that he has been delivering. they are too restrictive and looking for the reason to adjust monetary policy. at the very same thing they announced also the reduction of the amount of securities that are going to be allowed to mature off the balance sheet. that, in its nature is an easy monetary policy. i said that we are at the precipice of this. it is not a hard landing or a soft landing. it is this firm landing somewhere in the middle. where the economy will do the work for the federal reserve. they are able to cut rates. yesterday, for the wrong reasons. >> he still thinks that he can cut for the right reason. >> i think is going to be cutting for the wrong reason.

not so much because inflation is receding so significantly like it is in the rest of the world. if you go outside and look at europe. it is two handles with outright inflation. but the economy here begins to soften enough. ultimately, he will make the first rate cut. >> do you think of what he said yesterday and what they did, really what he said. it will clear the way for the all clear in some respects for the rally to continue? there was significant down for the next few weeks and where we were. we pulled back by 5% of the s&p. >> the totality of 2020 for the answer of yes. and i see some risk adverse behavior onto the market in the short term. we have gotten beyond earnings. so now we are rarely looking at the catalyst. the market will just vacillate where we are right here for the next several weeks or coming months. i would not be surprised but the prevailing bullish trend is

actually in place. i did the confidence and consistency of powell yesterday is one of the reasons. >> he hammered the case down almost point by point. and also he did it microphone drop a moment where he was asking why people kept talking about stagnant inflation. >> i'm not trying to be snarky here, but in the 1980s we had interest expense and the cost of living embedded in cpi. they have taken it out. the measurements which in the 1970s, the 1980s are not even comparable to today. we are probably in double digits. we do not have stacked inflation. we have changed how we calculate the numbers. once again, the jury is still out. he did a great job. but not taking that was accurate. >> let us hammer this just a little bit more. because i

think people would take the other side requires the jury still out? the jury rendered a verdict. there is no stack inflation -- stag inflation. >> that was a really a made up term in the 1970s. when you have high inflation and low growth. 50% inflation at 3% or 4%. >> high inflation and no growth. also really high unemployment. so we have a solid job market. so the last feed on gdp was below trend growth. but with your prevailing thought that was likely a blip. by the definition most would want to use and the feta chair hammered yesterday. there is no trend stag inflation. >> you are correct on that. stag was something from the 70s but the way they look at stagflation is very different.

we are in this unique time. we've had so much government stimulus. the jolt numbers are still strong. we have good economy nd workers as long as everybody is working. the worker is the consumer. and we are consuming. but we are in an uncharted territory. from the 18 -- from the 1980s and the 1990s we did not have q1, two, three and four. there is a difference of circumstances today. and just too simple to compared to a decade of what is going to happen for the next couple of years. >> malcolm? >> i'm focused on apple tonight. and my big concern i know that we give apple a very long

runway because of what they been able for do for the last five or 10 years. if you voted for the last five years you're up by 200% because of the dividends. by 10 years you're up by 900%. that is a total return basis. i'm generally concerned that apple has enough innovation for the next five or 10 years to look the same way. i'm really focused on what is going to diversify us from away from the iphone. stott and i think that trick has already been played out. >> i have one word for you is services. we will see. you brought it full circle which is good. malcolm, thank you, and bryn full circle. i want to remind you tomorrow if top analysts on this program. he is going direct to the big results and we cannot wait for that interview. and christina for looking the biggest names moving? >> a slew of bad news for peloton. and earnings and guidance. for the job cuts worldwide as part of restructuring effort. lastly, the ceo stepping down. the board will continue research to replace them. for is not turned a profit

since december 2020. it carries $1 billion in debt. and moderna is posting a smaller loss. even though sales were its covid vaccine fell by 91% from one year ago. the company reiterating its full sales guidance as experts covid sales to pick up in the back half of this year. i do not want even to think about that. the showers are up. >> thank you. up next, the fate of the rally. we will find out if he is expecting a bigger pullback ahead or if this is going to keep going and where is putting his money. he is joining me, next.

welcome back to. the averages are rising after he less share than feared. the s&p 500 is on track for a

negative reading. and the miller family office welcome back. >> thank you for having me. >> you have been bullish. >> yes. and ai for one year now coming up in june. it is a secular trend that is not going to end. it has great legs and it is going to be a long runway. we are probably the first few innings of this revolution. so it is going to take a lot of chips and energy. and a lot of patience. >> with all of that said. if the fed chair said yesterday and was more hawkish as some of your he was going to be. i do not think this market would look like it does. and a lot of these ai names with the transformational technology you talked about would be green. what about yesterday? was it a game changer to the was

or could we thinking about a correction? >> hawkish with two corrections at 70% so far this year. that is rhetoric leading into the meeting. it was good because he was going to be so hawkish. the next move was a hike but it set him up well. and we said today that he is very confident and pretty precise in what he said. the next move is not going to be a hike, most likely. it will be a cut. but in terms of a dual mandate they are back in balance right now. the more that things get out of balance if unemployment will stay up. he will pretty much get off his horse and eased down. and the yen getting up to 160, those are macro factors that are pretty much reversed for the last. even though it was talking and it could have intervened. the chinese yen is down and oil

is back down under $80. and we saw a starbucks warning they were being but less aggressive in terms of purchasing their coffee. the lower love of consumers even though the mid-level consumer is stretched with inflation as well as rates. some of the things that the fed will target they cannot target car insurance or health insurance. some think the fed will not target. and he knows that. it is a bit of a meekly approach. you cannot precisely target where the inflation is coming from. >> let me ask you this. the longer they wait to cut with that increase the risks of something bad happening? >> of course. of course. of course it does. i think it is pretty evident. the longer they wait, the chance of a mistake is higher. we had this tug-of-war between $5 trillion on fiscal spending and 500 basis points tightening. the viscose seems to be winnin

. and obviously the fed has been really tight. we all saw the original banks crack. that led to a flight of safety for the maximum of seven names because that large balance sheets. and the ai store was just beginning. >> now buy backs with dividends. with a little cherry on top. >> and if you go back and read it just mark zuckerberg. the fact of the compression going on with these harsh language models. they are going to the basis of llamma 1, all the way up to llama 5 where it used to be whenever it was per talking to train these things. the cost curve is being bent so rapidly. it is going to be ubiquitous on all attacks.

>> as you have been adding for full disclosure but adding to your microsoft and adding to meta-. adding to amd. but also a believer in the broadening story? >> yes. they're going to be second derivatives and third derivatives of all of this. microsoft is the biggest. the growth rate is crazy. they're in the right place. back in 2003, aws was already experimenting with a large language models. and getting cheaper deliveries within amazon with a cheaper and faster deliveries. they been doing that for a while. aws is only going to generate more and more revenue. but the free class flow with $100 billion in free cash flow. in terms of ai names are the cheapest. that is one of our biggest holdings along with bitcoin. but amazon is really in the drivers seat right now. in terms of where they can go

and where the trillions of dollars of revenue that potentially is out there for them to get is really just the tip of the iceberg. >> let me ask you about bitcoin's since you brought it up grip not spoken about it in days. it would seem obvious at this point relative to the moves. it is below 60. it is so still tied to risk sentiment. >> it seems like that. >> has that changed and why would it change? >> one of the interesting stories going on right now there was this debate. or maybe some frontrunning in the etf's. everybody knew the ets were coming out. fidelity, there was this money that floated into the etf that was taking the margin away from the gpt. we also had more power.

but the one thing is that what people are trying to figure out if there is this tug-of-war. it is between ai and bitcoin energy. so ai is going to take a tremendous amount of energy to run these chips . perhaps nuclear power plants. >> bitcoin could be a ai story too? >> but some of the downdraft hear from is 74,000 is obviously guys trying to calculate. if it is going to cost them this much to get the bid coin and you also the ai store on this side. maybe some of that energy that people using for money could go to ai . you have this push and pull. those are some of the things in one of the reasons why it is below 60,000 right now. but it is a risk reward type of thing in terms of risk on and risk off.

>> and now with the stock market. >> and the volatility. but as we see the volunteers actually gone down the longer that is been in existence. what we were looking at was below 1000. but now what is 74,000 the volatility is much greater when was at one 1500. >> we will see you soon. great seeing you. joe spallanzani . up next, the road for the fed. as we await tomorrow's all important jobs report. to advance the future we will get more clues and what could be in store for this economy and with the fed's next move could be. just after this break. perfore and expand coaching tools. take your business further with america's largest 5g network. do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. call coventry direct to learn more. we thought we had planned carefully for our

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welcome back it is nice to see you, roger. >> thank you for having me. >> what was your take away from yesterday? >> i thought it was both correct and comparatively optimistic. because expectations just the morning somewhat earlier were pretty down. and all of that talk about a possible rate hike. and even if we did not see that nothing in 2024. and essentially what he said was we need more time to see progress on inflation. but there will not be a rate hike. but it was obvious that he was still planning on the next movement. and probably this year although it remains to be seen. and i think there are some very good economic data here. on the one hand, the economy is showing itself once again to be

remarkably resilient. compared to the rest of the world. and also late in the economic recovery cycle it is pretty amazing. on the other hand, there are signs of slowing. not early signs but they are still unmistakable. it should be conducive. and they take a little bit to lower the inflation. and in turn, the fed able to ease before the end of the year. with that slowing, investors are starting to see if it is the commentary from the fast food ceos. or the slightly weaker job openings rate. and either surveys are also showing such as a trucking. that is positive from the point of view from the medium outlook from the fed. also for investors. >> and he put it into perfect contact yesterday. when steve was describing what you are saying is the definition of a soft landing. the economy is going to slow down

company? are you expecting already this year? >> we could all be talking to reverently after tomorrow. and also the wage data that is also going to be very important. but just one. and i think the election cycle people will deny that. but the election cycle will play a role. they are not going to want to cut too close to the election. >> to you consider july too close to the election? >> no.

and i do not even think september is too close to the election. but inevitably, the fed is sensitive to that and for their perceptions. my answer would be one. but it is in fact data dependent. and should we suddenly see which we might slowing wage growth. and it just some improved inflation data. that number could go up to two. >> are you bullish on risk assets in the here and now? and i interviewed jeff yesterday. and for a moderate risk assets parts of credit. he is pretty bullish. at least in the near term and in part because of the padded chair was not yesterday. >> well, i am pretty bullish.

and if you look at indices like credit swap and the futures market in terms of the federal funds rate. i think there is reason to be bullish. and even the first point i tried to make is the united states economy is just a marble. the u.s. economy to be growing like this. if you strip out trade and in inventory for the first quarter. we have an underlying sense of 200%. that is amazing this late in the cycle. they are four years into the recovery. if you look at the job creation machine that the united states is. with 3.8% unemployment rate. the fixed investment. we are the envy of the entire world. there is just nothing like the u.s. economy. so i am bullish. >> what a great place to end, roger altman, thank you. >> thank you.

up next, the biggest movers as we go to the close. we are coming right back.

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let us get back to christina for the stocks that she is watching.

>> carvana is posting a record result. even turning a profit during the first quarter. the first two years was paying off. and j.p. morgan up against target to one of $30 for the stock. and also confidence in the carvana expansion and improved margin shares. shares are up nearly 34% right now. >> and despite big-ticket furniture, wayfarer was able to reduce losses by cutting 13% of its workforce earlier this year. but they were optimistic. with the active customer growth was once again positive and accelerating compared to last year. shares are up by 40%. >> thank you. still ahead, the stock gaining 30% this year. t al seeing some weakness for the last month. what will we should look out for. we will be right back.

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up next, we are inching towards apple's earnings. 4:30 p.m. and what we are watching for. other earnings. expedia at the top of the hour. we are going to take you into the market zone, next.

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now we are in the closing bell. we are going to break down the crucial moments of this trading day. him and not just apple earnings, and expedia. mike, the big events as i see them for investors. apple and the next game is also tonight. jobs tomorrow. cpi may 15th. and now it is out. >> if you want the sixers series out of the way tonight, hopefully. but we need to avoid a final 10 minute fade in this market. for 2 days in a row we had that. the market was taking its lead from bonds. relaxed after yesterday. not that much has changed necessarily. we are sitting with earnings

accruing that the estimates are fine for the next few quarters. but apple is a big piece of it. in terms of overall numbers if they could dazzle as opposed to just steady as she goes. the expectations are for steady as she goes. we do need to get to the job report. there are still some hesitation. and we are sitting there again on the s&p. we got there in february and i keep talking about it. it was before the inflation spike. it is a ready position for the next to get moving. >> and rates have come off. obviously, is that the most significant thing to ease off? >> in the immediate term, that is what is taking. the banks are up by 3% in two days. small caps. that will show you the impact. the market is still in a television mode. but just 4% off. >> what should we expect from coin base? >> so crypto crisis are

expected. with an all time high. but is expected to help revenue. and we expect a 40% upside. the consensus revenue estimates as crypto investors were drawn to the rising price environment. bitcoin has seen outflows in recent weeks. and coinbase should give us an update in april. on how things are rending with volume. but also trading. that is the main revenue driver for coinbase. wall street is watching the take rate. that is each transaction. also in the midst of institutional trading as well. charging over fees for professional traders. any revenue diversification would be seen as a positive. that would be through subscription services and progress. and a lot of the silicon valley tech investors want to see. the regulatory. coinbase is fighting a lawsuit. we will see if we can any commentary or updates on that. >> thank you. by the way, stay tuned.

their ceo of coinbase will be sitting down for an exclusive interview . and ready for booking and expedia. >> we are ready to post pandemic travel. the story is changing. in this earnings season as to what extended house that impact growth? the messaging from airline ceos. for the last two weeks is one of optimism but was also is a helping that the resurgence in business travel. the challenging with booking and expedia as they are relying on it leisure travel. the cracks are starting to emerge. specifically, booking holdings and data showing that booking and room nights are treading to soften. that will a key thing to look for for these two companies reporting tonight. the outlook will be management as well. and in 12 days, expedia is going to get a new ceo. this is been in recovery with the stock down this year. that will be the topic of interest.

and we have not talked about that category. we are seeing increased competition amongst booking airbnb and expedia. one of the speculations is that expedia is moving and losing market share. with airbnb is up by 60%. >> and for anything about the consumer after the starbucks shocker. >> for sure. specifically, price sensitivity. if somebody wants to build a case why inflation is declining. are we seeing anything like that? from hotels or airlines. >> what a fantastic point to make. hotels can keep their average daily rate higher. so how that will play into warnings is interesting. >> we will see you in overtime with those results. and you were the two minute morning. so, here we go. the jobs report all eyes are going to be on that in the morning. apple is important. but in

terms of the story right now is the jobs report. >> yes. apple. i think the jobs report we are still in the mode that we want good news to be good news. but for some acute raw nerve about wage inflation but it could still be well above the target inflation is still not necessarily move things in the wrong direction. we will see how that holds up. but aside from that i think that it is whether we can tally up the weaker earnings. where are we going today? and the yield is at 4.5%. you can still have clearance and hold the valuation of the market. to me, that is where we have been for a while now. and we could get the jobs report. we are also going to have the eco-effect. the fed meeting coming up next week. >> if anything, the employment cost index people pause. that was a big reason why we had to decline. >> with that productivity and labor cost today did not upset

the bond market. so we are taking our spot as far as inflation. >> the dow is going to get more than 300. in the s&p will be a little bit low. but the all eyes are on the markets. stoks getting a boost as they digest with more big earnings in the jobs report still on the way. welcome to "closing bell overtime" i am jon fortt . morgan brennan is off today. where just moments away from the earnings report that all of wall street will be watching. apple taking center stage. in 30 minutes after he rough start. we will bring you the numbers live from cupertino, california. to get ita