will be about the fed this afternoon, what powell says, how hawkish he sounds walking back rate cuts for the year given the firmer inflation ratings and he he interprets the weaker data points like gdp and job openings today. >> qualcomm at ebay tonight. keep your eye on crude closer to 79 than 80 let's get to the judge welcome to "the halftime report." the market's earnings and investment committee on the case on all of that joining me for the hour today, jenny herrington and steve weiss. we're green on the dow, in the red on the s&p 500, and the nasdaq's given back .5%. we know what's on the table, though, don't we the fed this afternoon looming large. joe, all sorts of questions about the economy, the rally, rate cuts, and everything else how should we be thinking about this before we get to big news about your rebalancing of the etf? >> i think the firm landing is here i said that haft week. i continue to see moderation in the economic numbers i'm hearing commentary on the

part of ceos, certainly what we heard from starbucks last night that the consumer is becoming more cost conscious. the effect of higher rates, the effect of inflation is real. it's impacting lower income -- lower income consumers, and i don't think without question you could avoid that ultimately what does that mean i know some people have suggested, well, maybe the federal reserve puts on the table a possible one more ratea and ultimately what they deliver to markets i don't think is going to be too disruptive and send the market into a deeper decline. >> sounds like -- what are you saying, the bullish story is over the firm landing's here? >> i think the firm landing actually benefits. i think the firm landing benefits the premise that accommodative monetary policy is closer than we think i actually think you get the rate cut at some point in 2023

>> will we get it for the wrong reasons? >> i take what he said the other way. i get that he's saying that's not going to drive the market lower, the fed to. and that it's the rate cuts -- i took it as it's a buying opportunities. >> is that what you think? >> no, that's definitely not what i think is that what -- >> in terms of the market overall, i think the market is going to run to different places the next several months and ultimately go nowhere. i see a lot of risk-averse behavior internally within the markets itself so i think if you look at the markets now -- adam parker said 10% off, 10% down, he doesn't know i don't know if i'd go with that wide of a band i think 5% either way is a coin flip >> wolfs they're thinking 4,800 on the s&p, that the s&p and the nasdaq are starting to resemble what they call bear flags. we could talk about support levels and all that. i don't want to bore you with that weiss, give me sort of your disagreement on -- with joe.

now you're more bearish again? >> i'm saying there's a time to invest, and there's a time to wait for opportunities i'm in the wait on opportunities stage, and again, not by markets, buying individual stocks the risk, i'm comfortable with market risk at this point. i'm not comfortable with so that's how i look at it i see no reason to rush into the market we still have elevated valuations, they've moderated somewhat but we're starting to see as we heard from starbucks that it's starting to hit the consumer now. and it was only a matter of time anyway unless we'd seen rate cuts already now it's unlikely we're going to see them any time soon in the next few months, so what's going to control the markets what's going to control the markets right now is what's happening with the consumer, what's happening with the companies. i'd say at this earnings reporting period if you take out the big companies which did quite well, and i'll put meta in that did quite well, it was sort of nonplus >> let me ask you this -- even

if, let's say we come away from today believing, you know, what the journal characterizes it as that cuts are on hold indefinitely as long as we know that cuts are the next move and we're convinced of that, that powell doesn't make us think, oh, my god, they may hike if we think that cuts are the next move and the economy's going to remain solid enough, it's not like earnings are coming in trash. you can point to certain things that play into the bear case you can point to things that play into the bull case. why isn't that enough to keep the bullish overall story intact >> the way you put it is if the economy stays where it is, then sure but my bet is that this tightening policy has been going on for a long time right now, and should have hit the economy sooner but hasn't because of all of the policy liquidity that's put into the market.

i don't think that's the base case that the economy stays where it is. i think the base case is that the fed's focused on rates, they're focused on labor, right, employment, and right now you're seeing employment hold up. i'd discount the adp numbers, i find them unreliable we'll see when we get numbers tomorrow but bottom line is i think the economy's waning because rates have -- weakening because rates have been so high for so long. that's not part of my base case, as you put it. >> i find it interesting that goldman has not given up the ship yet in terms of the belief that the fed's going to cut probably twice in their estimations this year. because as he says today, "the two key pillars of the disinflation narrative are intact lagging official measure of shelter inflation, that's one, and two, the ongoing reversal of shortage effects for cars and other goods. so they're sticking with their forecast july and november, you're going to get cuts. >> yeah. i think he's right

i think that there's a high chance of that and then it goes back how does the bull case -- how does the bull story not then stay intact. and where i come back to on that is i actually go back to wolf. i think wolf's right, 4,800 seems like a plausible number. why? because you have reality, valuations, math, numbers, whatever you want to call it that gets in the way here's the reality now, 46% of companies have reported. 77% of them have beat -- that sounds great -- but actually we're on track for a quarter that's going to have growth of about up 3.5% year over year that puts us on track for growth of 12% year over year. that gets you to $250 of earnings on the pennsylvania 4,800 divided by 250 is 19.2 times. and 19.2 times valuation on the s&p 500 is still quite positive. it's still almost one standard deviation above the long-term average of 16.6 times. so you can have a great story, but the valuation shows up as important. we're seeing that in things like

starbucks where starbucks is a great story. probably just on the floor behind us there's like, i don't know, $300 worth of starbucks, maybe more floating around but valuations ultimately matter >> look, the people who are more bearish or cautious are going to seize any data point that they can to help build their case you're making it sound like the starbucks report today as bad as it is and the comps were surprisingly bad as they were, and the stock looks like a disaster it does, i'll take your starbucks and raise you an amazon i'll raise you - >> okay, great >> the caps and eai - >> that's the perfect cap for my story. amazon up 2% yesterday it was down 3%, 4% >> stock's been at an all-time high >> it's ultimately flat. over the past couple days. it gets into valuations matter, numbers matter, expectations matter and i think that there's too much roth. the thing that i think we're going to need to go back to is when we talk about bear case and

bull case, i think we need to to talk about that with magnitude do you think 4,800 is a bear case in that's down a few percent. not too crazy if we think the big bulls at 5,200 and 5,400, that's up, it's not that significant. >> with -- can i propose one qualifier? that market multiple you cite is with an average interest rate environment, right >> good point. >> okay. so if you take a 19 multiple, it's reserved for -- for - >> right - >> for easing for lower, for accommodative policy >> good point. >> we're going to get accommodative policy >> we don't -- >> one of the greatest debate is, that's what it is -- >> that's the beginning, the middle, and the end. >> however -- however, what we're talking about is that the market multiple at the time of where rates are, where monetary policy is, i would argue should be below 15 times historically >> i think that's aggressive

but -- >> you're saying 15 times is the right multiple >> i'm saying historically historically that's where -- if you take an average 14.6 times multiple, that's based on an average monetary policy. here we've got restricted amount of monetary policy not saying it should get there -- >> make your next two points quick. i've got to move on. >> let's stay on the point of this -- i think in the last several days we've heard from a lot of people that the premise of accommodative monetary policy is the next move that we need to reverse -- >> no, it's not. neutral is the next move >> we need to reverse that that, in fact, is not what i see. inflation is no longer a global problem. inflation is a domestic problem. the rest of the world, europe, inflation is coming down aggressively, okay here in the united states, the federal reserve's talking about paring back the pace of quantitative tightening. that's deliver quantitative monetary policy in itself. they're not going to say, oh, we might raise rates at some point this year.

and the firm landing -- let me finish -- the firm landing that i cited at the beginning of the show where it's not just starbucks, it's harley-davidson,'s whirlpool, that we've learned about a strained consumer, firm landing, economic contraction comes into the fed delivers - >> there's a step between restrictive and accommodative. and that's neutral we're nowhere near accommodative monetary policy. that's below 3%. >> agreed. we're not there now, but we're going to get there >> here's the ching, i think we all -- thing, i think we all agree we are higher for longer just this morning i was talking to my friend about her two - >> a little bit longer >> i think a lot longer. i was talking to my friend who bought an apartment during the pandemic and has a 2.65% interest rate. even if the feds accommodate - >> that's the litmus test of what that -- the housing market? no >> i think it's a very good representative point -

>> no. >> hear me out even if the fed gets accommodative and cuts interest rates, interest rates will be much higher than they are. so as people even if mortgages and like auto loans and credit card loans, even if all those come down, the rates are going to be higher people are going to bei servicig deficit. >> yes -- debt >> yes, the world is not going to be a 0% interest rate much longer >> it doesn't make us go back to an environment, to steve's point, where the market can comfortable trade one time - >> okay -- >> nope. i want to hear the other steve's point. and that's our senior economic reporter stevel l leesman, prepg questions as we spoke. i hope and presume you listened to our debate here how is it relevant to what's going to happen today? >> obviously you got to take the whole conversation you all just had, really interesting one, and put it into a large language model and see what the ai bot thinks about it. that's the key there, scott. look, i boiled it down to three

different risks that are out there. extreme, a moderate, and a low risk most of the risk is to the upside the worst is they introduce some more than even possibility of a rate hike. i don't think that happens i think the fed backs off the outlook for the customer -- cuts, the moderate one the best possible scenario is the idea that inflation is seen as just a bump or a blip along the way. look, there are two different ideas out there. you've got the kind of more extreme ideas of saying larry somers who thinks the rate is not sufficient to bring down inflation, and then you have the other idea out there which is that all we saw the last three months is just a kind of first of the year blip that was embodied in the goldman report that you talked about which i did read either last night or this morning, whenever it came out, that they're sticking with that forecast for inflation to fall. that's the view of a lot of economists and then you have this other layer which is that what's the real new news right now? and i think it's a cooling of the economy. scott, i pride myself in not

being swayed too heavily by what companies are saying in their earnings reports the starbucks one is probably the most interesting to me look, people are addicted to this product more or less. they wait in line to overpay for coffee if that's not happening, that to me is an interesting sign of perhaps gathering weakness in the economy. so i think what powell does today is he plays for time and lets this essential idea that the policy is restrictive, it is sufficient to bring down inflation, play out. and you know, i know we're fast money and halftime and doing things in a hurry like the clock running, but remember, it's only a year this july that the fed will have reached the peak rate. so that allows powell i think to say, you know, let's wait to see how this shakes out. i think he's not going to try to do much more harm. you have the market down 4.6% from the peak. you have rates up about 50 basis points on the two year the market tightened for powell. so let him allow that to play out as it would on the economy

>> you raise an interesting point. when, you know -- talk about starbucks, we know that one of the ways because they've told us that the fed gets it information is by talking to ceos >> true. >> it's just how they formulate a lot of economic forecasting because they don't have the benefit of seeing this data at the right exact time they go by conversations they have with ceos to get a temperature take on how things are. you really think they'd be moved in a spirited way by the starbucks report today >> not i don't about one report from one coffee company, although it's a bit bigger than a coffee company >> it is a big one a big one. >> i think as part of an unput into things that the fed looks at, i think it would be potentially swayed by it scott it gets back to the discussion we had the other day on stagflation where i kind of pushed back that stagflation is not a normal outcome here. what is supposed to happen maybe this is what's happening

-- companies raise prices, prices get too high, too hot and people back off buying it. that causes companies to eventually reduce their prices or compress their margins. you need to throw that, by the way, into the conversation about where the right level of the stock market is here but that's a process that normally happens, the economy cools as a result of rate hikes. and then you get lower inflation along with weaker growth i think that's probably the best hope, i think that's the outlook for the fed. i think that's the one they're going to rely on at least for several more months as long as this inflation issue doesn't get worse. remember, we're talking about 2.8% inflation when we had an inflation problem it was at or near double digits. i lived in a country where i went home -- went to work in the morning with a snickers being 25 rubles, and i came back in the afternoon and it was 50 rubles that's an inflation problem. the fed is very close on its target don't get on me -- the fed is

not going to solve the inflation problem the american people care about, the price level it's targeting the rate. it's a relatively close on the rate it is not -- i think it feels to panic here >> i want to put in perspective -- i appreciate that i know we have to let you go we will see you later. i will see you right after the chair is done with his news conference when we welcome in jeffrey gundlock i'll let you go. i'm reminded let's not take one report like starbucks and act like it's the end of the world, okay, or the sky is falling. what was it, a week ago, chipotle came out, chipotle came out, and they've raised prices did they come out and suggest that consumers are all of a sudden not buying burrito bowls in the magnitude or for the price that they once were? so perspective is needed why are you smiling at that? >> that's a fair point >> why >> i'm sicynical that if you'rea management, and i'm not saying they're dishonest, i'll blame it

on the consumer, not on my operations, not going to blame it on losing substantial market share to every - >> starbucks' comps were a shocking miss. >> no -- >> that's not blame. that's fact. >> no. but i'm saying in terms of what you're blaming it on, okay, it could be competition in new york, we're not alone, as i travel around you see the coffee shop on every city. you know, so maybe it's not just -- >> starbucks weren't down the magnitude they were as a result of competition - >> i'm saying -- >> the blue bottle or whoever else - >> that's why pointed out that with the 46% of the companies reporting, even though there are 77 beats so you can pick and choose, collectively those are only adding up to about 3.5% growth you can pick starbucks, whirlpool, you can pick chipotle, pick them all, collectively it's lackluster >> they've been jaded over the last couple of years also. there's not operational excellence there either. >> let's talk amazon we saw the stock was up. it didn't have a tremendous

reaction to a strong beat. and aws was the pillar of that weiss, you own the stock, i think the number going in was 13% growth on the estimate the whisper number had to be higher we discussed that with mark mahaney ed , 15, 16, higher than that, it was 17. >> yeah. on a huge base it's $100 billion business it wasn't that long ago that it was $60 billion business as a matter of fact, about a year ago so the growth is amazing and you know what, scott, the growth is going to accelerate because cloud is data storage. and you already have a multiplier effect without ai on data needs to go into the cloud. now think of what you're going to do as you're going to increase that as you -- as companies adopt more ai strategies, use their ai tools more in the cloud. so you got to love the hyper scalers. it's growth that's going to restart from where it was. and by the way, penetration, you know, it's not 100% across companies that should be in the cloud.

you have a number high percentage still on prem to me, that's the story, that's the heart of the story and that's why i continue to own it i'm not surprised by the muted reaction given the market backdrop yesterday given the fact that analysts tripped over themselves the last couple of months to be the highest priced target on the street >> they were chasing a stock that continued to go up. >> exactly >> hit a record high >> it all comes down to valuation. a 3% free cash flow yield. it's a little too expensive. >> you would never -- if you're going to say that today, you will never own the stock >> that's not true at all. >> you're going to own amazon. >> >> a year ago the free cash flow yield was almost a 5% hurdle the where is, yes, we were -- answer is, yes, we were close to buying amazon and google >> you're talking being apples and oranges in terms of valuation. come on. >> it boils down to -- if you look - >> my obvious point -- >> if you look at it based on free cash flow which is like that's where the -- what is it, rubber meets the road, with what

they can generate, that matters. >> these companies don't trade in free cash flow. tha that's - >> why is it up 1% on a fabulous story? because it's too expensive there is too much exchangeation. >> let's -- expectation. >> let's get to joe's rebalance. it happens quarterlily for the jot. the buys and sells that you have altogether is that you sold apple. >> and you are not surprised at all. >> no. i'm not. i'm not. you sold tesla, too. >> sold tesla, as well >> two fairly i think we can call the weakest links of the mag seven stocks, you no longer own. tell us beyond the bullet point of losing quality and momentum >> here's what happens -- in april of last year, the strategy goes in, it buys apple at around 1.69, 68, sells apple at 1.70

yesterday. basically a scratch. what is the strategy recognizing? number one, it's recognizing the negative momentum that has existed over the last year for apple. and it's also concerned about the declining revenue growth, and the declining revenue growth for this company is real if you look at the last three years, you're talking about 13% revenue growth if you look at the last quarter, there was actually an acceleration up to, whoa, 2% in the prior four quarters, you're talking about negative 70 basis points and i can say the same thing about tesla. tesla, negative momentum now i've said on the show i think tesla's on a road it basically nowhere. i wouldn't short the stock, i wouldn't own the stock but last quarter, the revenue's down 8%. you're looking at 47% higher over the last three years. the strategy sold tesla at $200 in october brought it back in january at $187, we're at $183.

i understand the reasoning behind both of those names we're down to owning the mag four, nvidia, microsoft -- >> the danger as i see it is that certain things that look like they have lost their momentum are troughing, and the turnaround could be in the not-so-distance future you're doing this, and we said the timing of all of this is tough for you because apple reports tomorrow >> yeah. >> and you know, whereas the stock was at $165, now $170. you'll get an announcements, a wwdc next month, the early part of june. this is a potentially difficult setup. >> and i have no problem responding by saying, well, i'll sit here on august 1st if all that comes to fruition and tell you that we bought apple again

because the example that you're citing is exactly what happened at the end of january in 2023. if the strategy is effecting it says correctly, then it quickly recognizes a mistake in removing a position or adding a position, and in the next quarterly rebalance it correct that mistake. if you go back, that's exactly what the strategy did with all of the mega caps remember, this strategy sold nvidia in january of 2023. in april of 2023, it bought it back price of nvidia was $275 at the time the strategy should correct itself i'm comfortable with that. >> what you can do with nvidia in june, 2024, given how the stock's performing and performing today >> we'll see >> may 22nd, may 22nd is the earnings report. >> yeah. >> there's time. >> yeah. >> there's time to take good measure of it. you said you still own alphabet which, by the way, did you see the nose that third point daniel lobe has taken a new position in

that it was around the -- what he calls the blunders around the rollout of gemini. but that it, you know, created an attractive entry point for a longer term investor. >> a quick comment on that when we're scoring momentum and scoring the quality criteria, i want you to think about it if you're a college basketball fan, about march madness, but ranking the teams and then you've got teams that are on the bubble what i'm noticing with alphabet is that the scoring for alphabet continues to rise. so it's becoming an even stronger holding within the overall eft itself >> all right so amd obviously is a big loser today, as well, after its earnings that's going to -- which you still own. >> yes >> that tees up a conversation that we're going to have next in terms of what you've done with your semi exposure because you've sold a handful of names d lyout e. we'll document that next fel

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welcome back "chart of the day. maybe it's obvious, amd. let's take a look. it's down sharply after earnings joe, we mentioned that you still hold it. but it is down a lot of these ai chip names are down what do you make of the decline of near 10%?

>> it is a normal reaction to what we heard yesterday. it's a normal reaction to where there was obviously an overbought condition as it related to position and sentiment itself in terms of what we're doing strategically as it relates to semiconductors, we're taking down exposure. exposure based on the rules has come down from 10% industry holding down to 7.7% so we're beginning to see the -- a deceleration after multiple quarters of growing the exposure semiconductors we still have a very strong representation there but certainly not as strong as we had in the prior quarter. >> let me ask you this bluntly >> yes i love bluntly >> how in the world do you still hold amd based on your strategy given the performance of the stock? >> so what happened yesterday in terms of - >> before yesterday. >> well, in terms of the earnings for yesterday, that would be the most obvious decision on it but amd over the long run has

continued to move higher >> the stock's down more than 20% year to date. >> it is >> isn't that a loss of momentum >> if you pull back the lens on that, where is the stock over the last year? let's look at that the stock over the last year looks pretty good. so we're studying -- studying momentum in a variety of different time periods and 12 months is something of consideration to us over the last 12 months, you're talking about a stock that is 60% higher >> what is the most -- serious question -- what's the most important timeframe metric you look at to determine whether something's lost momentum or not? >> great question, and we have an example later in the show of an equity that will help me get to the place in terms of my answer but i think 12 months is the best representation, but what happened within the 12 months? do you have significant drawdowns? that's problematic

do you have a stock -- if i look at amd right now, amd is experiencing its first significant drawdown in the last 12 months. there are other stocks, i'll get to it now, freeport mcmoran, came out of the strategy a material company >> okay. >> you could look at freeport mcmoran, and the stock is near its high it looks really good but what happened to freeport mcmoran in the fall? went down 20%. what happened to freeport mcmoran in the first quarter it went down another 12% so yes, you've reached that level of an all-time high, but there's extreme volatility embedded in that where you've suffered two significant drawdowns, and that matters. >> as a loyal shareholder of joet, can i qualifi? >> sure. >> it's not -- >> it looks at various metrics, and those come together with different weights, come together and the chairman -- what the strategy's going to do >> i understand it but on a day and in a time where

i think maybe more than any time in the last 12 months stocks that have gotten an ai halo lift are being scrutinized in a way in which they haven't been to date >> nvidia. >> so before it was like, everything goes up, and you say ai 50 times on your call, you go up >> right >> if you're deemed to be an ai player, you go up. well, pc market still squirrelly gaming is somewhat anemic. >> right >> data center outside of ai is questionable now i just gave you three parts of ai -- of amd's business, arguably more important today than ai because they're in the nascent stages of creating these chips that are going to be able to - >> right - >> let me add one thing. i'm sorry. one quick thing. remember something -- the rebalance and reconstitution happened at 4:00 yesterday amd's earnings were after that so you see 9% lower. we weren't able to aggregate the

earnings information into that -- >> sure. look, it's just a strategy you do and you're beholden to the rules and the timing that you have to play by. quickly, you sold skyworks, analog devices, microchip on semi, and texas instruments. you bought qualcomm. gave you the ones you sold i don't need to go through those. what was it about qualcomm that you decided to buy it? because they have earnings after the bell today >> balance sheet continues to improve, and the momentum scor to steven's point, a scoring criteria has flipped to what i call a green light positive. >> okay. see with earnings. this is one of those instances where you try to get ahead of it >> it is >> okay. we have the headlines. >> ucla announced that all classes were canceled today after the police were called in to put an end to violent clashes between pro-palestinian protesters and counter-protesters overnight the university said law enforcement would be stationed throughout the campus and that royce hall, the building where

the violence occurred, would remain closed until friday french police fired teargas on mayday labor protesters in paris today as thousands of people took to the streets demanding wage hikes, changes to working conditions, and protesting the war in gaza some protesters are also calling to extinguish the olympic flame ahead of the paris olympics this summer amid protests in the host city, the olympic flame continues to sail across the mediterranean sea on board a three-masted ship on its way to paris. the flame is set to arrive next week in the southern city of marseilles the torch will complete its 68-day relay across france when it arrives at the opening ceremony on july 26th. you'll be able to watch the 2024 paris olympics on peacock and all nbc channels including cnbc. scott, back to you >> all right, pippa. thank you very much. pippa stevens. straight ahead, we have a check in on health care. ppg,is plunging, pfizer is

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all right. welcome back take a look at shares of cvs today. down near 17%. that is a new 52-week low. that is after earns, after kmash was a big drag -- medicare was a big drag if you see farmer jim or amy raskin today, throw them a little hug >> yeah. >> sweet of you. isn't that - >> they all have a gigantic headaches today. >> i have a question on and one of my stocks tanked, have you ever suggested someone throw me a hug? >> i -- these guys aren't here, i'm saying give them a little hug. >> talk to joe and jenny it'svocabulary >> we wanted to talk to one of them today, shockingly nobody was available. >> you want me to take - >> you know what this means? there's you know what to pay the next time they're on the show. in all seriousness, pfizer, staying in the space, they beat

the stock, raised utlook, as well >> right so you know, it's -- it's the same investment, the same argument that i've had all along is they just need to get past the covid distortion they beat by 29 cents. they said revenues are going to be exactly where you expect them to be. they raised eps to $2.25 you end up with a stock with a six and change dividend yield trading at nine times earnings like there's nothing spectacular here there's no glorious story. but expectations are nothing valuations are reasonable. you got a 3% lift. i think this is a wonderful company to be in if you -- if you just want to collect six and change yield for a very long time and maybe have it grow, i don't know, at like 3% to 8% that's achievable. nothing exciting here. just getting past the covid distortion >> okay. joe, i use that as somewhat of a vehicle as i look on my screen to get to lily you sold ellie lily in part -- eli l'illy in part of your balance at $781.10

>> purchased in october at $554. the reason is that the debt to equity continues to climb. would i have preferred that the rules allowed eli l'illy to stay in the port orchard? yes, i believe it's a stock that at some point is probably a $900 stock. it basically trades like a biotech. but the rules are the rules. they're wrictten a certain way the criteria as it relates to quality places a high emphasis on what your trajectory is for debt to equity and it continues to rise. >> do you ever get to overrule the rules? >> no, you don't -- why would you want me to overrule the rules? >> a great trade i'll buy and sell to him at $900 >> when was $545 you said it was rolling over >> you going to buy it -- you can buy it now as a hedge. >> good point. >> can i say something on lily we have a lot of individual clients and a lot of individual clients come in with like really big legacy positions in lily i think a lot of the viewers

struggle with that, too. what do you do with this i think -- and actually, you know, where i could trim those legacy positions earlier this year what you've got is you've got a stock that's doing extremely well, but is trading at many, many times the multiple of all of its peers and i think that there is risk there. like if there is real competition in their glp1 drug that could stocked lose ten multiple points, 15 multiple points in a blink. i think this is where like you really actually focus on the valuation and worry about that as compared to the wonderful like oh, my god, you know, glp1s are amazing story. which they are >> okay. you got a quick point? >> no. >> okay. mike santoli next.

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we are back now with senior markets commentary mike santoli is here post nine. what's your mind today >> i mean, markets still in testing mode i think that's definitely the case in terms of not necessarily leaping to any conclusion about what they're going to hear from powell more importantly, are treasury yields getting tired up at these levels i think that's going to matter most in how the bond market reacts to what powell has to say. you know, i pointed out yesterday and this morning that this is the level we were at before we started getting the hot cpi prints it'sa matter of what's changed what hasn't since then the messy, messy consumer earnings, the decline in oil, even the softer joet report could be seen as helping out powell in this case to say that disinflation is not over and we don't have to really sync the economy to get the job done. we'll see if that plays out, you know, in his responses >> you feel like a more hawk --

risk of a more hawkish powell for most part in the market at this point we've been prepping ourselves for days now >> i think to a degree, yes. i think nobody is expecting an outright dovish message. the room for a dovish surprise there is probably in there i still think this isn't really crucially a fed-driven market. it's more about let's get past this meeting, you know, we seem to be on board with the idea that we can wait a few months if the next move likely is caught that probably holds up i think the options market is looking at 1% s&p move after this meeting i'm not sure specifically why. >> i feel like we talked ourselves out of being a fed-driven market. now we've talked ourselves into sitting in that seat >> you get challenged on both sides of the equation obviously. the inflation numbers have not let you relax about the easing story. then the growth -- i think we overshot on the indomitable u.s. economy narrative. now anything that complicates that and says maybe consumers

are hesitant, i think starts to create some doubt. that's what the market needs the market needs doubt we had an excess of certainty at the highs and you'll want to reset expectations i've thought you get even 8% decline, back to the old high of 4,800. that would probably reload things pretty well not sure we have to get there. >> i -- we hear this commotion over here. that's the right word to use [ cheers ] >> there you go. there you go you got the bell which signifies the opening of viking. biggest ipo of the year. just opening for business. priced at 24 that was a higher end of the range. and the stock's going to open higher by 9% they continue to have the festivities just behind us here at one of the posts. yet another ipo on the floor of the new york stock exchange. we keep saying, well, maybe this is the beginning of a parade of them maybe not so much. but nonetheless, a big day down here for viking. coming up, we'll have more

of joet's big moves. for and financials front and center next.

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>> interesting move in crude today, lowest level since late march. it brings us to you again. energy, you significantly increased your ownership here to 10.4% from 6.4%. give me a quick one why. >> throughout the quarter, i'm tracking the criteria which we're going to score on the fact as a quality of momentum i knew that energy was looking as if we were going to increase exposure back once again it goes from 6.4% to 10.4%, we added five names we own 13 energy names, and i knew once that was affected on the close that the spot of crowd oil would be lower today but that's not why

>> you buy conoco, slb, hess, and halli. some are wonder wling whether t momentum in energy is running out. >> it could be in the spot price of oil, but mark fisher told us a year ago, $65 to $85 is perfect for all these energy equity companies >> even if the economy -- if it gets a little more squirrely that you worry it might. you're predicting it will. >> if it gets a little more squirrely, as you progress through the course this of this year, there could be pressure on the energy names >> inventory is up today did you see that >> i did >> regional banks. you picked up five regional banks. huntington, m&t, hartford. >> if you asked me the headline

of the april reconstitution, it is the increased exposure in the financial sector steve, 23% exposure here one year ago, we were at 1.8%. that's our second largest sector weighting. what's coming down, industrials are beginning to come down lower and lower. industrials had been the second largest. so we're adding names like cme, t. rowe price, names that we -- >> you added back beberkshire. >> we did. we sold it on the last rebalance, we sold id at $384, we get it back a little higher, because we are seeing the improvement on the return-to-equity that's an important quality criteria >> your earlier remarks in the show, we have no problem going right back in once again regional banks -- >> mega cap moves over the last

couple of years. berkshire's annual meeting is this saturday. watch it at kcnbc at 9:30 this saturday >> i don't like regional bank exposure, because i don't think that account force what we're going see, the national refinancing bubble, coupled with a major writedown. we just saw a bank in philly get taken over -- >> huntington bank, cincinnati financial. >> don't like it >> you don't want any of them? >> don't want any of them. >> pick and choose they're not all the same >> okay. "final trades" are next.

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for mom, with love. you know what's coming at 3:00 eastern time on "closing bell." that man right there, jeffrey gundlach, doubleline capital we have a conversation about what the fed chair just said, where interest rate policy goes from here, and the best investments that you can make. so i hope you'll join me at 3:00 eastern time jenny, you are first what's your final trade? >> oneok, trading at 16 times earnings, the stock is down 2% today because the numbers were a little squishy

i own it >> weiss >> i'm going with leidos phenomenal quarter since new b management >> joe >> crowdstrike i open it personally >> thanks for all the information. i'll see you at 3:00 i'm tyler mathisen in for teltkelly evans. it is the final countdown on interest rates today market probabilities indicate no chance of a cut today, but could what jay powell says move the markets one way or the other plus, three more names on deck to report. it's all about the consumer, inflation, housing our trader will buy two and fade one name into the print. and we'll tell you