filibustered on friday i was going to do it now, but here we go now, delta. beautiful chart, by the way. the fundamentals look great. >> good stuff, joe >> filibustered over me. i've been long j.p. morgan since 2023 and there's another 20% still in the stock. >> thank you for that. i'll see you on "the closing bell," "the exchange" starts right now. >> welcome to "the exchange" i'm john fortt in for kelly evans. our market guest says don't fear high rates, embrace them he'll tell us what he's buying against this backdrop and one name that's out of character for him and musk makes a surprise visit to china as tesla clears a major hurdle in the market is this the catalyst that can have the beaten down easy maker and this offers a unique way to have the gop diet drug craze and the

company's products spans various sectors. that's what makes it so interesting. the ceo will join us exclusively ahead, but we begin with today's market and bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. bob? >> hello, jon. good to see you. we have been chopping around in a fairly narrow range and the trend is up and certainly since the pc report and the s&p 500 and the trend's been up here we're trying to get to the 200-day moving average and we're at 5114 now, slowly, but surely. a lot of strength in boeing, that's great news. apple. caterpillar's been strong. goldman sachs has been strong and that's at a 52-week high and a number of big movers nasdaq, the big-cap tech is mixed and let's take a look at the mid-cap tech stock and meta and alphabet is down 2% and amazon will close tomorrow and it is up fractionally here

global industrials have been having a great little run in the last couple of days and that's good to see. boeing, let's get out of this month and one of the worst month ever and boeing was near a two-year low just a couple of days ago and it's been trending upward recently? i mentioned caterpillar was 330 at the open on thursday. remember the gdp report and the inflation concerns 330? it hit 3.50 today and that's a big move for caterpillar in a short period and freeport-mcmoran was at the open, and near $52 this is one of the biggest copper and gold producers in the world. both of those had been doing really well as commodities recently and some of the big dow industrials are doing well we had rubric and this morning we had word that viking cruise lines which has the big ipo is supposed to happen this wednesday and they have upsized the term of the ipo here they'll be selling 53 million

shares, 21 to 25 and that's 44 million shares and the bottom line we'll raise $1.2 billion with a single ipo and you saw rubrik got as high as 40 and trading down a little bit today, but bottom line here, jon, is we're doing really well on the ipo business we have over $4 billion in the last four weeks and a couple of billion dollars coming in the pipeline in the next up kcouple weeks. >> we'll see if it stays steady. more inflation and more growth and that's the latest according to the cnbc fed survey and we're getting ready for another interest rate decision this week steve iesman has the details hi, steve. >> jon, good afternoon the cnbc is showing forecasters after those numbers last week that bob was just talking about. they ratcheted up the outlook for the second quarter, the one we're in now and for 2024 inflation. we've seen these repeated growth upgrades and the weak one keeps

coming in better than expected and this is the most substantial inflation boost to the album that we've had in more than a year and here are the numbers after a weaker than expected gdp report and it boosted the second quarter real growth real gdp to 2.1% and that's inflation adjusted from 1.4 and a decent upgrade. transferring that, most of it into q2 and inflation is seeing the year up 1.3% up from 2.7 in the prior survey and that number in the forecast for core pce for the year with cpi running at 2.6, still above the target range for the year and that assumes, by the way, a rough formula that cpi runs about half a point hotter than the pce usually does about half of the respondents say the recent run of higher inflation is just a blip half say it's part of a longer term stall in inflation progress that will keep inflation stuck around three the fed doesn't act.

barry knapp thinks the federal government should act, too inflation is likely to run above tag until and unless there is a fiscal policy tightening unemployment forecast is seen rising steadily from currently 3.8, to 4.3 by next year we'd be getting off cheap if we end there. 50% of respondents say the fed cannot hit the target of 2% without growth running below potential and the unemployment rate rising by half a point. how much the economy has to weaken, jon, for the fed to hit that target? that's one of the pressing questions for the central bank right now. >> steve, i'm a simple man i think in metaphor, right i'm not the senior economics reporter i think a high rate environment like this as being like the economy's car is coasting, right? and if we were to give the car more gas eventually it slows down and it's not slowing down that much yet, right

so i mean, does something else need to happen with this car or is the coasting the slowing down from coasting going to be enough higher for longer to get us to where the fed says we need to go >> yeah. let me confuse you, jon. i know you're a simple man and we all want to be like that, but here's the problem we're not really sure what our ground speed is here it's not like you're lifting off a rocket and you know exactly how much fuel you need to get and escape gravity here. we're not sure, relative to the speed of the car how fast we're running. so therefore, we don't know how much brake to apply. i don't know if that makes sense, but here's the deal we seem to be running faster than we thought we'd be running given the amount of breaks that have been applied to this point. for example, we've ratcheted up the funds rate to 5.3, 5.8%, but the economy is not slowing down as much as thought the unemployment rate is not rising

that suggests that relative to the speed of the car or the speed that we intended we're going a bit faster so more breaks would have to be applied or the same amount of breaking for a longer period of time i wish this were science as i like to say monetary policy is not rocket science, it's harder >> we don't have full self-driving coming on the economy any time soon. i don't think elon musk is working. steve liesman, thank you. >> ai for the fed. >> there you go. well, our next guest says don't fear higher rates, you know? embrace them that means the return to a more prosperous time. the bigger worry should be the macro conditions that would force the fed to cut joining me now for more is chris grisanti senior portfolio manager at mai capital management chris, welcome so things are pretty good and that's why the fed's doing what it's doing or not doing what it's not doing and you say that's fine.

why? i think it's more than fine, jon. i think it's necessary you don't want lower rates because lower rates don't happen by themselves. the fed isn't a santa claus is going to give lower rate as a gift they'll lower rates when things start to slow down i would much rather live with higher rates and a stronger economy. look, every economy, every market has problems of one kind or another otherwise i would be out of a job as a strategist, but this problem which is inflation's running a little hot and rates are a little high and that's an equity problem for the markets to have. remember, earnings are reported for nominal dollars and the inflation will feed into the earnings and earnings should be okay this year jobs seem just fine right now. who knows what will happen in the future and i get it that higher rates take time to slow the economy. they don't happen overnight, but look, it's been almost 8 hun

nights since the fed started to raise rates and the economy's chugging along i think we should hang on tight and enjoy the ride and fear a rate cut >> chris, for an equity investor in this environment, so many stocks are so richly valued it's hard to know what to buy so how do you decide >> right so valuation is a problem, jon i wouldn't go out and buy indiscriminately, but us value investors, we complain about the mag 7 and it's gone up so much and unjustified and blah, blah, blah, and the flip side of the mag 7 is all of that capital flowing into the stocks and its had to come from somewhere, and i think there's a bunch of sectors and specific stocks that have been left behind. i particularly like the health care sector right now. i think the slow are growth there compared to technology makes it unattractive, but those p-e ratios have fallen so low that you can make a decent return even if the market gets more difficult in the six to 12

month ahead. so i'd look there and there's a couple of other stocks we can talk about, as well. >> yeah. let's talk about one of the others as well and that's meta i understand that just on valuation it looks cheap, but mark zuckerberg keeps spending all of this money first on the metaverse and now he's spending it on infrastructure and things like nvidia and hyperscaler chips. is it really a value play if they're spending that much on this growth future and we don't know how long it will take to pan out? >> right look, it's uncomfortable for me as a value guy to recommend a mag 7 stock, but let's look at the stats. so meta is the only mag 7 stock selling at less than a market multiple based on next year's earnings and yeah. it's not a top line problem. it's a spending problem. this reminds me very much of amazon two or three years ago where the top line was doing just fine and they were opening warehouses and doing all of this stuff and the bottom line got

cut. that's not the case here meta is still going to grow the bottom line, simply not by as much and the top line is healthy and this is not a slowing economy and this is not a slowing economy. this is a healthy company that's investing for the future and we can get it at 17 times next year's earnings so love it >> zuckerberg also has a history of saying he's going to spend a whole lot of money and then just spending a lot of money and not a whole lot and the stock gets the benefit. >> it's all expectations. >> yes >> there have been some pockets of exuberance within health care because last year the glp won excitement and caused the air to come out of certain stocks oh, everybody's going to be skinny and pretty and won't need those things anymore turns out not so much. where are the pockets of the largest opportunity relative to the risk, do you think >> i think there's a couple of large-cap pharmas that are selling at single-digit p-e ratios i also think united health group

is interesting because the medicare pricing went against them and all of the other companies and they fell precipitously, and they have a history over 20 or 30 years of managing around that kind of negativity they can do other things with such a big health care company that adjusts for that loss of revenue from the medicare side so those are the kind of things that i take advantage of also in health care, again, the capital has been sucked toward the weight loss drugs to the disadvantage of other things that might now look quite attractive. >> how are you treating sectors like industrials and materials with an overall global macro slowdown we're seeing demand problems there that have been hitting new stocks this earnings season. i wonder if that's creating opportunities or if there's a broader reason to stay away from the stocks in your mind. >> well, you may never invite me back, jon, but i've been on the show before saying i really like

lithium. the shares have dropped by 70% and that's because u.s. investors see the problems evs are having in the united states that are currently in a demand low, but europe and china are both selling evs like hot cakes. it's a global commodity. lithium was overproduced and folks stockpiled it because they couldn't get enough and now we're in a one to two year recycling and i think that's an opportunity. again, i wouldn't bmaterials willy-nilly. >> you mentioned hot cakes, let's talk chocolate hershey's, how does that affect a player like that and the opportunities you see. >> i think it's creating a great opportunity, and everything that's bad is actually good. so at hershey's, the stock's down 30% because its biggest cost of goods sold is cocoa.

so cocoa prices as you've reported have quadrupled in the last two years and they've doubled in the last two months so that's terrible for hershey's. the stock is naturally down. also the multiple is down because nobody wants to own a company that will have this big headwind, but if you think a year or two ahead, cocoa prices dropped. hershey's earnings explode because the margins get bigger and the multiple that increases. you've got this leverage that can make hershey's a stock that can go up 50% or 60% over two or three years. that's the kind of stock that can still work in a bad market that us value guys really like >> maybe like the mini pandemic effect chris, good to have you. good to see you. if it's up to me we'll have you back. >> that's great. age-old debate of renting versus owning is starting to change in a big way thanks to soaring mortgage rates

our diana olick has that story diana? >> jon, the rent versus own math used to play out different city to city. home ownership has become so expensive that rennting a home s cheaper than buying one in all metropolitan markets and that's from bankrate which compared monthly mortgage payments to current rents. the monthly mortgage payment for a median-priced home for $112,000 was 2,703 as of february of this year and that includes property taxes and insurance. so compare that to the national monthly rent of $1,979 which includes renter's insurance. that's a 37% gap between the two, but in 21 markets that gap is actually 50% or more. those markets include san francisco, seattle, salt lake city, austin, denver and dallas. cities with the smallest gaps, although still more expensive to own, include detroit,

pittsburgh, philadelphia, cleveland, st. louis and tampa these numbers are as of february when rates were slightly lower than they are today. rents are easing despite rising demand because there's so much new rental supply coming on the market, multi-family starts have dropped sharply. once that supply does get eaten up, rents could start to rise again and jon, one more note, even though it's more expensive to own you are building equity when you do own a home because ho house prices go up for houses. >> what is this doing to the multi-family investor market because i guess on one side tenants are more likely to stick around if they're not moving up and it's hard to buy something new unless you're paying cash because capital is at a premium. >> yeah, i mean, look, the oversupply in the rental market with the big reits and we're talking about class a multi-family apartments are still doing quite well, but they're strong lower prices a

little bit or give concessions on that first month of rent. so the multi-family market is still very strong again because we have this large demand from renters, but again, once that rental supply does get eaten up, you are going to see those rents start to pop back up again so i don't think investors in multi-family have anything to worry about. >> diana olick, thank you. coming up, shares of tesla sharply higher today after the company cleared a key and long-awaited hurdle. shares up there 15+% and how important it is for the company and the stock here three more names on deck to report including this one. it's already up 85% in one year, but that's not stopping our trader from buying it. he says let your winners run he'll join us ahead in earnings exchange we're back in two. ♪ ♪ this is "the exchange" on cnbc

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welcome back to "the exchange." the company passed a major milestone in china chinese regulators are removing restrictions on the ev maker's advanced driver assistance technology after passing the country's data security requirements as part of that deal, china's baidu will prevent mapping for tesla. those shares also higher on the news and we should note this news coming on the heels of elon

musk's surprise trip to china where he met with the chinese premier in beiging on sunday for more on how significant this is to tesla and the stock going forward, i am joined by the lead equity analyst at rbc autos at rbc capital. i get conceptually why this is a big deal the part i don't get yet, maybe you can help me is how relevant is the existing u.s. data in training for chinese for self-driving or regionally is this completely straight training because i imagine, you get training in des moines is not going to go ahead in new york city and we drive different places in this world >> yes and no. so what we've learned from fsd in the u.s. is the highway driving is as good as it's going to get it's amazing the difficult part is the urban environments and what we noticed from urban environments in china

is that they actually are pretty similar to urban environments in the united states, and the other thing i would note is remember the chinese, the central government authority that wants this to happen, that wants to have level 2+ and potentially more robe o taxi, et cetera. there is more chance that we'll get to faster autonomy than in the u.s. in rural areas and highways are maybe somewhat different that part is not the difficult part it's really the urban environments and the dense urban environments in china are not as different as what we have in the u.s. >> looking out for investors, is there a kind of tiktok risk here for tesla? tesla ares driving around with cameras on them, sensors and looking at who's going where and how people drive and the argument could be made from the chinese government's side and that's why it took this long to get this kind of approval, but boy, that spy material if it's all getting sent to the u.s.

could this end up being a bargaining chip being turned on and off in the period of u.s.-china tensions or is there enough benefit, social societal benefit that china is getting, and they're not going to want to do that. >> yeah. this has been going on for a long time where they didn't allow the data to go back to the u.s. for the all g al go rhythmc learning it's tieffive times safer, not five times safer they're looking for the greatest good to society and it's saving lives. it's definitely huge utility that it does, so i think it's really them looking at what's the best thing for society and it's saving lives. limiting accidents that's really what's the driving force here >> does this end up helping

tesla longer term with what might be seen as a margin problem. there have been these price cuts as chinese ev competitors are going up against tesla do you think tesla will license this technology to others in china and therefore make margin whether they're selling hardware or not or whether they'll keep this internal apple style and use it to try to justify selling their cars either at higher prices or getting a government subsidy if they can prove through data that it is safer? >> yeah. and i just want to point out, i've had fsd and robo taxi together worth 70% to 80% of my price target for a long time, now almost a year. not only, it is the margin the software business subscription and my model has it at $50 a month and he's lowered it -- they've lowered it from 200 to 100 and just imagine when we put the gross margins on the software product and the multiple you can get part of it is a valuation we get

from re-rating the stock as a tech company, software company and the other aspect exactly what you point out is the margin story and we've seen what's happened with auto margins coming down and they'll probably come down some more with a new affordable car, but it doesn't matter if you can slap on an amazing subscription on it that gets you higher margin if we can see margins overall slowly creep up because of the take rate and we've seen it already in version 12 with the free trial with the success and then that translates into greater margins overall. you'll definitely see the narrative for tesla from being a car company to something obviously, much, much more >> maybe you can answer for me what nobody else has been able to at least to my satisfaction which is why robo taxi would be so good for the company if it means that i can call a tesla and have it drive me around and i don't have to buy one. it seems like for a significant

period of time that's bad for margins because it has to be tesla's fleet that or people that are willing to lend their car around for others to ride around in which has all kinds of issues. >> the economics of robo taxis is massive i'll just give you some numbers. you pay right now when you order an uber about $1.90 per mile the cost of a private car to own is about 53 cents per mile to own and operate a robo taxi is about 33 cents per mile look at the economics of a product someone willing to pay $1.90 that cost you only $33 the margins are huge and the amount of miles on the road will be increased and you charge on a per-mile basis instead of selling a car. there's a piece of hardware that's super capital intensive which, to be honest, the industries are some of the worst merchants of any company in the world and it's high single digits and maybe double digits if you're lucky.

in the industry, here, you're dealing with a business with data that you can get way bigger margins and it's a per-mile basis which you can charge a fee. it is far beyond the $3 billion box with wheels industry it takes from small cities to each other and it also was a bedroom with wheels. it's a living room with wheels and it has ability to trend from society and this urban housing, we see a group of cities looking for parking and parking garages. you can resolve a lot of that. this is a huge, societal transformational event and a money grab and it's where legislatures and politicians want to go in this direction and that is where we're headed >> maybe they'll figure it out in china first tom o'ryan, global autos analyst.

thank you. still ahead, this company has a unique tie to the weight loss trade shares are up 2% today and the ceo will give us the skinny on the company's success next also, paramount shares are popping ahead of q1 earnings and today's results might be the least of the company's concerns right w.no details coming up on "the exchange." heart o local life and cultural treasures. because when you experience europe on a viking longship, you'll spend less time getting there and more time being there. viking. exploring the world in comfort. (♪♪) business can happen virtually anywhere. (♪♪) but there's nothing like being there. at national, you can skip the counter... and choose any car in the aisle...

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welcome back to "the exchange." the market in the green, the dow low is still up 143. you can see the nasdaq there outperforming the other average and not showing you the russell and that's up more, up nearly a percent. here are some of the movers this hour first up, domino's pizza,fast food chain hitting a new 52-week high after reporting a 6% boost in same-store sales. the loyalty program has grown significantly since the launch shares up along with that nearly 6% today, and next, amc. shares are off almost 11% as the movie theater chain says it's still suffering from last year's hollywood strikeses. ceo adam aron says the brand is likely to feel the effects through q2 and the street has a handful of hold ratings on the stock and amc set to report next

week finally, shopify shares are up almost a percent so far today after citi upgraded the stock to neutral to buy. the firm cited confidence in the near-term thanks to a strong e-commerce backdrop and an accelerated market share from shopify and also pointed out merchant solutions as a long-term growth opportunity and now let's get to tyler math son for a cnbc news update >> thank you very much lawyers for hunter biden is planning to sue fox. the letter notified the network over alleged conspiracy and subsequent actions to defame hunter biden it's the second letter sent from lawyer mark geragos which fox hired for the litigation fox news has made no comment after it boosted investment in

fast shipment in a bid to remain competitive in online shopping it said about 60% of prime orders in 60 major u.s. cities arrived within that timeframe. the announcement comes a day before amazon is set to report its first quarter earnings pittsburgh's pro-baseball and hockey teams are launching a streaming service for local games. sportsnet pittsburgh launched snp 360 which will cost local fans $17.99 a month to watch the pirates and the penguins play. it's the latest regional sports network to shift to streaming as more customers cut the cable package cord jon, back to you >> wow tyler, thanks. mark geragos still kicking around. >> yep >> two big restaurant names to report before the bell, but only ones in the green so far this year our trader will tell us which one he's buying and a quick programming note, the 2024 berkshire hathaway annual shareholders meeting is this

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♪ ♪ >> welcome back to "the exchange." you can see your session highs on the dow shares of aptar group up 2%. one of the biggest first-quarter tailwinds was increased demand from obesity drugmakers and management expects continued strong pharma performance throughout the year. aptar also makes spray and pump bottles and "the exchange" has been tracking that since the pandemic we first spoke with them for our out of stock segment when hand sanitizer was a red-hot commodity. back with more and an exclusive interview is aptar ceo stefan pandhar. give me a sense now of the market particularly just on the consumer side first? i mean, we used to have this supply chain bottleneck. that's no longer happening beauty has been a pretty strong segment overall. how much does pump and

dispensing innovation factor into that? >> hi, jon thanks for having me back. things are kind of normalizing now. all of this inventory adjustment and the stock is behind us we see normal growth we, of course, had a boost of new launches after travel remained with our fragrance and that's normalizing and demand is picking up at a more normal pace and all of the supply chain issues i think are in the rear-view mirror >> give me a quick primer on the technology because i didn't generally think of these pumps as being high tech, but then again i think to the time when i was a kid and we were worried about the ozone layer and we had to phase it out because it was bad for the environment so there was definitely tech in there what are we moving toward and where is the rnd effort that

will show you benefit down the line >> these are really high-tech products with the assemblies put together at high speeds, 600, a thousand parts per minute and indeed, more and more sustainable and material fashion so they can't be thrown away in the recycling bin and easily recycled our customer is driven by the consumer who demand innovation and as you know, we were the ones that enabled it sat down sour cream and most recently dish soap and the same in the pharma space, making notes to making drug delivery possible and pain reduction or antidepressants and unfortunately, also narcan >> okay. in those areas are you sort of competing against people going to taking pills, taking these drugs orally are there innovations that you can make to make either this

less painful, less cumbersome that's going to lead to share gains over time? >> absolute plea the thing about it is do you want to inject yourself like with an epipen or do you want to just have a nasal spray take care of that so it's a much more consumer spendly way of administering drugs and many of our customers, pharma companies find this as a very good way to give drugs a new life cycle and things that used to be injected can be administered through the nose or become more effective and much quicker to the brain where they need to do the work. >> does the macro economy affect demand for you or is it mostly based on who needs whatever product? i wonder how stable demand is even despite these macro cycles? something investors might want to think about. >> yeah, when you think about a normal recession if there's such a thing, it really doesn't scare us

people have breakfast, lunch and dinner they put on their game face and take their drugs in good times and bad times. clearly covid wasn't the normal recession and covid hurt us and with covid beheine us we are back to executing very well and now seven quarters is helping us. >> what about international expansion? what are the best market possibilities for you right now? >> we are actually a very global company and we've been around 30 years and 70% of the business is outside of the u.s. based in europe and the board was just in china for a week and so we have a global company and geographic growth is an important driver for us especially in pharma and also in beauty and the food markets. >> from injectable drugs to upside down sour cream, i love the breadth there. stephan tanda, thank you >> thank you. coming up, paramount set to

release after the bell shares is up 5% ahead of the print and we'll dig into the boardroom battle next. speaking of battle, let's get a little show and tell in here activist firm ancora getting oort another vote of confidence they're urging share holders to vote for six of the nominees at next week's investor meeting and norfolk southern shares slightly higher and down 4% since the proxy fight started back in february our own morgan brennan sat down with allen shaw earlier today who warned against ancora's strategy >> the ancora coo said he would tear norfolk southern down to the studs. that's not safe. that's not responsible we're doing it in a manner that brings along our customers and our shareholders and our employees and our regulators that preserves the opportunity for long term growth that's the winning strategy.

a short-term approach is a losing strategy for our shareholders ours is the winning strategy. >> we'll have much more from morgan's interview later today on "overtime." that's one of my favorite shows. at 4:00 p.m. eastern time. "the exchange" will be right back

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welcome back to "the exchange." paramount reports after the bell and the first quarter numbers are taking a backseat with the drama unfoallding as it looks f a buyer. julia? >> paramount global ceo bob backish is expected to be ousted today. that's according to sources close to the situation who say that the company's board could announce a new leadership committee to replace it. all of this comes after yesterday's david elson's skydance made its best and final offer for paramount, also according to sources in that deal ellison would be ceo and former nbcu chief and jeff would be president of this

new combined company and that's according to sources close to the situation who tell us that the final offer that they made yesterday does include paying a premium for some percentage of class b shares which would mean a better deal for non-voting shareholders investors seem reassured by that news with shares up about 3.5% today, but last week investor matrix asset advisors sent a letter to paramount global saying it is bad for shareholders with bernstein agreeing with that sentiment shares are still down about 25% since the news broke back in december 10th and sherry redstone was looking to sell her controlling stake in the company. now sources tell me sony and apollo are considering submitting their alternative proposal to skydance's bid as earlier as this week there's another wild card here, as well and paramount's negotiations with charter over their deal that expires tomorrow night. the terms of that deal and whether charter takes all of the

channels and with what fees will impact paramount's value going forward. jon? >> julia, this is a company and an industry under a lot of pressure unless your name is netflix. regardless of what happens here, but does it look like people are feeling that this deal with ellison is probably the bird in the hand >> you know, that's what i was hearing up through yesterday, that this deal was sort of set to happen, that this is what sherry redstone wants to happen and the fact that we're now getting more of these details leaked and the new terms of this deal and the best and final offer does make it a better deal for shareholders to me makes it much more likely to happen because that might minimize the potential for lawsuits, et cetera, but it's still a wild card right now the deal may or may not happen and the charter deal does need to get done. we saw the conflict between charter and disney and what a sort of different complicated distribution that deal was and

incorporated streaming rights, and so i think there are a lot of unknowns here, jon and i suspect there's more at 4:00 p.m. eastern >> can't wait for a sirius whether it's a movie or one of the streamers. thanks, julia. >> coming up, mickey ds and mounja a mond'rondcdals and eli lilly, that's in "earnings exchange" next 's and mounjaro and mcdonald's and eli lilly, that's in "earnings exchange" next

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welcome back took "the exchange." we're looking at the help of consumer and maybe their appetite we have got mcdonald's, brinker international and eli lilly. here to discuss these trades is harry wald, head of technical analysis. let us start off with mcdonald's pictures up 8% from the october low but down 7% in 2024. wells fargo watching demand as traffic picks up from a january wall. international also looking to rebound with weakness report in china, the middle east and france. what do you do with mcdonald's here? >> i think you sell the charter mcdonald's the chart pattern looks like the golden arches

symbol of mcdonald's. it looks like a topic i like to interpret these charge with what the market is doing. s&p 500 broke out to all-time highs but mcdonald's was not able to do that but it got stuck below peak levels with last summer. that is an indication of weakness. when the market receives in recent months, but we get weaker. mcdonald has slid back below the average with the indication of our poor trend. generally we are over all more skeptical of more lowball stocks. >> why is this not doing what walmart is doing? you would think that would be good for mcdonald's? >> walmart does not fit the general offense over defense call we have been talking about in a bull market. consumer staples, probably relatively weak.

within staples some of the retail names, costco and walmart have been able to hold up what is driving that? >> let us stick with food put up next is brinker britishers up 10% in 2024 by 30% below 2021 levels. wedbush warning that trade down could hurt margins even after prodding price increases as higher wages and cost also cut into profits four, better than mcdonald's? >> it is better. this speaks to them mixed action with wanting to dune down capitalizations and finding a pocket in the industry. that is working, brinker, chilies and maggiano's coming out of a bottoming process but did breakout with cycle highs bring about prior breakout level is now support, low 40s, 43 down to 41. our assumption is after the run up with consolidating sideways.

as market conditions improve in the second half of the year, as we expect, that breakout does resume for brinker. >> if we have a problem eating too much, finally eli lilly. up 25% in 2024 coming off of the all-time hybrid weight-loss drug demand is a key focus as prices for older drugs decline and investors wait for announcements from the development pipeline. you like eli lily here because we were eating chili and maggiano's? >> it is an established leader. it is a great example of letting your winners run and with the uptrend it has been our buy list of september 2022. as far as putting new money to work, you want to buy some weakness for let us see if it settles a little bit. i'm watching 675. there was a price action gap from february put those gaps get billed and they have support for it would keep the stock above its 200 average and maintain the uptrend then we look took a move back above the

50 day of the long-term updraft. >> it is kind of like nvidia. in a mixed large-cap group, those are the leaders. i think you stick with the leaders. >> ari wald, thank you printer ari wald from oppenheimer. it is an upmarket day but if you look at the indic seas, they have been holding in there. doubt, s&p and nasdaq all up a little less than a half a percent. the russell is the strongest of the group up almost 8% the 10 year note, the 10 year yield has been suffering a little bit. we will have to see how we close out the day. still have a couple of hours of trade left. particularly in this type of environment, how have these health and maims continue to respond? that has been an area of strength sector wise, we have

been watching. >> it is the healthcare sector versus other strategists on the street. it is a mixed bag. some of the pockets are working better than others. some large companies are working well. as we think about this bull market cycle, which is still intact. that is the point we want to stress. the action we have seen is consistent with the bull market correction rather than an end of cycle bear we want to buy pullback spring less so, healthcare, more snow industrials. financials and technology. i think you want to stick with as well. at this point in the cycle, the leadership is established for the second year you want to stick with that. that is the driver gains looking ahead >> ari wald, thanks again. i keep thanking you. now we are done that will do it for "the exchange." i will be back for overtime first "power lunch" is back after bisquick break .

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shortcut welcome to "power lunch." everybody stocks slightly hard today per building on the right nasdaq, s&p, could make it five winning sessions out of last expert despite an early morning drop on thursday, all the averages are just a few percentage points from record highs >> apple contributing to the gains for the average sh