�* heartlands �*heartlands have consistently labour heartlands have consistently voted for the party and many have felt they have been taken for granted. labour has often approached muslims in minority communities through the prism of social and community leaders and this idea that individuals within the communities can give them a block vote and when you get incredibly young people politicised by what's happening in gaza and we saw this with the rack as well, labour has now to try to win over a plurality of voters and voters who are going to ask tough questions and that is going to be a serious headache for the party in the years to come.— serious headache for the party in the years to come. thank you very much for coming _ the years to come. thank you very much for coming in _ the years to come. thank you very much for coming in the _ the years to come. thank you very| much for coming in the programme giving us a bit of the nuanced picture of what is broadly a very good night for labour. conservative is not so much. nick eardley can ta ke take us through that. it's been a really tough now for the tories and the conservative party h o i am sure they are trying to find some of the

positives and areas where they have managed to hold control of councils, potentially some of the mayor raises my give them a bit of a silver lining but on the whole, the great picture is pretty bleak for the tories. let me show you this. first of all, this is the vote share compared to 2021 when the seats were last contested. in 2021, boris johnson got a bit of around two bounce after the vaccine roller but look what happened since. the change in the last three years. that is the tory vote change, down 14%. that is pretty big. it's worth looking through some councils when the conservatives used to be in power but are not any more because of this. have a look here at redditch. this is a bellwether seat and we said that all morning and an area with the parties think the result is pretty indicative of how the country is feeling. look at that. the conservatives have lost 11 seats,

labour won ten and it means this long line of blue down here is done. this is now a labour—controlled council. let's have a look at another one. rushmore in hampshire and the conservatives have lost eight seats and labour have won seven. a long line of blue has come to an end. it is now a labour—controlled council. finally, the electoral coalition that the conservatives managed to build at the last general election in 2019 included hartlepool. sorry, it didn't, i was slightly misleading you there, hartlepool was an area for the conservatives have been doing all right in recent years, particularly after brexit and they voted 70% leaving brexit referendum but look what happened overnight. the conservatives lost six seats, labour won eight and it went from a hung council to one that is controlled by the labour party. a

lot of people in westminster are trying to work out what this means for a general election. by—elections are different but there was an important by—election overnight in blackpool south and it was won by labour. look what happened to the conservative vote. that is really bad. down by almost a third, most of it going to labour and some going to reform uk, the successor to nigel faraj's brexit party. if you're a tory mp sitting this morning to try to understand what this means for your election prospect, there is no graphic that is going worry you more than that. 26% swing from the conservatives to labour. that is huge, that is the third biggest swing from the tories to labour since world war ii. there have been a lot of by—elections recently were the sort of thing has happened and has become a pattern that will really worry conservative mps. thank you very much, nick.

i'm joined live from tunbridge wells by laura trott mp — chief secretary to the treasury and the conservative mp for sevenoaks. thank you for coming in the programme. this was a bad night for the conservatives. h0??? programme. this was a bad night for the conservatives.— the conservatives. how bad? it's a really disappointing _ the conservatives. how bad? it's a really disappointing night - the conservatives. how bad? it's a really disappointing night of- really disappointing night of course. local elections are always tough for incumbent governments but is also important to say that this is also important to say that this is early on in the process and results are coming in over the weekend as well i think the real test will be when we have the mayoral elections because the places like tees valley and keir starmer has to win if he gets in over a majority of the next election. but there are plenty of commentators who are saying, yes, those mayoral elections are interesting but actually, you have some who may be winning at despite being conservatives instead of being conservatives.— conservatives instead of being conservatives. , , conservatives. they will be running on a fantastic _ conservatives. they will be running on a fantastic track _ conservatives. they will be running on a fantastic track record - conservatives. they will be running on a fantastic track record which i on a fantastic track record which they have done as conservative

candidates and they have shown what conservative candidates can achieve in a local area so fingers crossed both of them will get good results. the leaflet barely mention conservative. they won't even blue and this was a bitter personal track records in their personal polling, wasn't it, not the conservative party which cannot bode well ahead of general election?— of general election? that's not true. i of general election? that's not true- i have — of general election? that's not true. i have been _ of general election? that's not true. i have been out - of general election? that's not. true. i have been out campaigning with ben and i the thing we saw on the doorstep is the fact that their track record is incredibly important. of course running on that. they have achieved a huge amount for their local areas both of them and it's the opposite of what happened in london with the mayor their site don't think it's surprising that there running at local achievements.— surprising that there running at local achievements. let's look at the blackpool — local achievements. let's look at the blackpool south _ local achievements. let's look at the blackpool south result. - local achievements. let's look at the blackpool south result. your| the blackpool south result. your reaction to it? i the blackpool south result. your reaction to it?— reaction to it? i mean, it was a disappointing _ reaction to it? i mean, it was a disappointing result, _ reaction to it? i mean, it was a disappointing result, they- reaction to it? i mean, it was a| disappointing result, they wore reaction to it? i mean, it was a i disappointing result, they wore as you know the specific local circumstances with this by—election —— and there were... and is

unsurprising the circumstances which the mp5 put down. but unsurprising the circumstances which the mps put down.— unsurprising the circumstances which the mps put down. but at 26% swing, the mps put down. but at 26% swing, the third biggest _ the mps put down. but at 26% swing, the third biggest swing _ the mps put down. but at 26% swing, the third biggest swing since - the mps put down. but at 26% swing, the third biggest swing since world i the third biggest swing since world war ii. this is a record rejection of the conservative party to the labour party. of the conservative party to the labour party-— of the conservative party to the labour party. yes, there was also not a lot labour party. yes, there was also rrot a lot of— labour party. yes, there was also not a lot of people _ labour party. yes, there was also not a lot of people voting - labour party. yes, there was also not a lot of people voting for- not a lot of people voting for reform uk in this by—election and i think what we have seen here a just shows that a vote for reform uk is a vote for keir starmer�*s labour party. vote for keir starmer's labour pa . �* , . ~ vote for keir starmer's labour pa . �*, ., ., party. let's talk about reform uk. the)! nearly _ party. let's talk about reform uk. they nearly beat _ party. let's talk about reform uk. they nearly beat the _ party. let's talk about reform uk. j they nearly beat the conservatives and there were only a hundred votes in it. �* , ,., , and there were only a hundred votes in it. absolutely and as i said what the shows very — in it. absolutely and as i said what the shows very clearly _ in it. absolutely and as i said what the shows very clearly is _ in it. absolutely and as i said what the shows very clearly is that - in it. absolutely and as i said what the shows very clearly is that if. the shows very clearly is that if you vote for reform uk you are voting for keir starmer's labour party, a labour party who will not act to control illegal migration, they have no plans for our country and will take us backwards in terms of the economic progress we are making. of the economic progress we are makinr. ~ ., ,, ~' of the economic progress we are makina.~ ., «a of the economic progress we are makinr. . ., making. what you think people are votin: making. what you think people are voting reform _ making. what you think people are voting reform uk _ making. what you think people are voting reform uk are _ making. what you think people are voting reform uk are not - voting reform uk are not conservative?— voting reform uk are not conservative? , , ., , , . . conservative? this is a specific circumstance _ conservative? this is a specific circumstance in _ conservative? this is a specific circumstance in this _ conservative? this is a specific. circumstance in this by-election, circumstance in this by—election, you will know that previously the mp

stood down in a very difficult circumstances as a result... away from the by-election, _ circumstances as a result... away from the by-election, across - circumstances as a result... away from the by-election, across the l from the by—election, across the rest of the results come in pretty much every seat that reform uk had stood they have taken votes from the conservative party, why are people voting reform uk rather than conservative? b5 voting reform uk rather than conservative?— voting reform uk rather than conservative? as we discussed earlier, local— conservative? as we discussed earlier, local elections - conservative? as we discussed earlier, local elections are - conservative? as we discussed l earlier, local elections are often very difficult for incumbent governments. people want to send incumbent governments a message. we know it's been a really difficult yearfor know it's been a really difficult year for people inflation has know it's been a really difficult yearfor people inflation has been high and that lead to high cost of living pressures but what i would say to people at home is that the economy is starting to turn a corner, inflation is down, real wages are up, we have things coming on like the child care offer which has already been taken about 200,000 families, we have the rwanda vote which has been passed and means planes can take off soon so things are starting to get brighter. i5 are starting to get brighter. is rishi sunak the right person for the

general election? because given these results, if they do pan out as they did overnight, we have given plenty caveats and we don't have a lot of results in but if it is as bad as it looks right now, there doesn't seem to be any bride like the rishi sunak and do anything to change anything here. he is absolutely _ change anything here. he is absolutely the _ change anything here. he is absolutely the right - change anything here. he is absolutely the right person | change anything here. he is. absolutely the right person to change anything here. he: 3 absolutely the right person to lead our country and as i said we have had a very difficult year because of cost of living pressures and because of the inflationary impact of vladimir putin illegal war in ukraine what the prime minister has done is he has made sure the economy is turning a corner and he has brought inflation down along with the bank of england from 11% to 3.4% now and we have seen real wages rising as a result and like i said we have things at the childcare offer which is coming in which is a really positive thing for lots of families at home and we have the state pension going up by 8.5% this year. there are a lot of things and changes which will make a big difference to everyone watching this programme. flan difference to everyone watching this rouramme. ., i. difference to everyone watching this programme-— difference to everyone watching this rouramme. ., , ., , . programme. can you see a difference in results from _

programme. can you see a difference in results from tonight _ programme. can you see a difference in results from tonight to _ programme. can you see a difference in results from tonight to whenever i in results from tonight to whenever there is a general election? there simply isn't enough time, is there? like i said, we are at a very early stage with these results unless see what happens in tees valley and what happens with the other mayoral elections. i don't think we should draw too many conclusions too early in the tees valley result would be one that keir starmer absolutely has to win if he is to win an overall general elections unless you a happens there.— general elections unless you a happens there. general elections unless you a ha ens there. ., ,, i. , . happens there. thank you very much for cominu in the programme. with the caveat that lots of results to come but what can we read into results that we do have? sirjohn curtice is professor of politics at the university of strathclyde. there are two principal messages that are coming out of these local election results together with the parliamentary by—election in blackpool. the first is that so far as the gap between conservative and labour is concerned, nothing very

much seems to have changed. in one sense the as it a surprising statement because the swing from conservative to labour in blackpool south at 26% is the third biggest swing in post—war electoral history. the trouble is swings of the kind of size have now become more commonplace in the last year or so and we have had five by—elections in which the swing from the conservatives to labour has been over 20% so in that sense it's more of the same, it is at of parliamentary by—elections of the kind that we have really not seen since the 92—97 parliament which endedin since the 92—97 parliament which ended in defeat for the conservatives. equally, if we look at the detailed voting figures that the bbc has been collecting overnight, many have more to come but so far it looks as though if anything support for the conservatives in these local elections is a little bit down on last year, support for the labour

party is certainly holding firm and may be very slightly higher but anyway, either way, there is no evidence here of any closing of the gap between labour and conservatives orany gap between labour and conservatives or any narrowing of them labour lead. so again, we have more of the same, just indeed is the opinion polls have suggested. 0ne difference and again it is anticipated by the opinion polls is that reform uk were performing strongly and more strongly than last year, though they still didn't fight many words but crucially for the conservatives their intervention in blackpool south almost created embarrassment of the conservatives ending up in third place and in local council elections, places like sunderland, where again reform uk did very well, you discover that it's the conservative party in particular seems to suffer and again that has been a message from opinion polls but only a development of the last

three for five months. but only a development of the last three forfive months. it but only a development of the last three for five months. it basically means that the conservatives are is in as much trouble as a year ago with the added twist that they now have two parties biting into their vote, ie, labourand reform uk rather than one for the most part 12 months ago. rather than one for the most part 12 months ago-— months ago. thanks to john curtis for that. there _ months ago. thanks to john curtis for that. there was _ months ago. thanks to john curtis for that. there was a _ months ago. thanks to john curtis for that. there was a headache . months ago. thanks to john curtisj for that. there was a headache for former prime minister borisjohnson when he tried to vote. he was turned away in his local polling station because he didn't have the right photo id. he was a prime minister who brought in the law that required the right photo id and that was back in 2022 and it was then compulsory for voters in england to show voter id. we understand what happened then is that he left, went and collected his id and then came back and then was able to vote. let's just mark

your card for what is coming up because plenty of votes in its go to nottingham. plenty of votes being counted so as you will have gathered over the last couple of hours it's a friday morning and we get of others which by now and get a full picture. it's not the case for the last few elections local election or mayoral elections local election or mayoral election results which are not coming in this morning becoming a this afternoon and actually into the weekend so we have our live feed ready at nottingham we have sunderland as well and we are waiting for the results of the local elections but also my oral elections as well —— mayoral elections as from as well —— mayoral elections as from a concerted point of view —— as from a concerted point of view —— as from a can serve the point of view it has been bleak and they are hoping to do well. we also have a live feed is stockton and let's bring you up—to—date with the very latest

results when it comes to those number of councillors in england counsels that we have so far. labour are up 59, the lib dems up 20, conservatives down 133 and independence up 39 and the green party are up 15. that's just about it from me. we will be up next with politics live and plenty more analysis to come and plenty more results coming in as well. do stay with us. for the moment, thank you very much for your time, thanks for your company and this is bbc news. goodbye. applause and whooping a big victory for labour in the blackpool south by—election. this was directly to rishi sunak to say, we're fed up with your decline, your chaos and your division — and we want change. conservatives suffer big losses too

in the local elections. you know, a disappointing night for us. but, you know, that's what you'd expect from parties in midterm of government. it's early days and counting continues. we're expecting a result in the race for tees valley mayor in the next hour or so. professor sirjohn curtice will be with us throughout, analysing all the electoral trends. i'll be at the big screen, crunching the numbers. i'll be at the big screen, crunching the numbers-— the numbers. there are lots of results still _ the numbers. there are lots of results still to _ the numbers. there are lots of results still to come _ the numbers. there are lots of results still to come for- the numbers. there are lots of. results still to come for mayors, police commissioners and councillors. i will be talking to correspondents at counts up and down the country, politicians and commentators from across the political spectrum. with me throughout, the bbc�*s deputy political editor, vicki young and, at the start of today's show, health minister andrea leadsom, labour's deputy national campaign coordinator ellie reeves, and liberal democrat deputy leader daisy cooper. this is politics live.